자료유형  

 학위논문

Control Number  

0017165032

International Standard Book Number  

9798384462590

Dewey Decimal Classification Number  

320

Main Entry-Personal Name  

Lopate, Michael.

Publication, Distribution, etc. (Imprint  

[S.l.] : The Ohio State University., 2024

Publication, Distribution, etc. (Imprint  

Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2024

Physical Description  

179 p.

General Note  

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 86-04, Section: A.

General Note  

Advisor: Braumoeller, Bear F.

Dissertation Note  

Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Ohio State University, 2024.

Summary, Etc.  

요약Great power declines are rare and highly varied events of world historical importance. Despite near universal agreement that understanding the causes and process of decline is of existential importance, there is nothing resembling a scholarly consensus on any theory of decline. The following three papers cover the extant literature and justify the need for new theoretical work, present a new theory of state decline, and test that theory on the most well-known case of decline in the modern period: the collapse of the Soviet Union. Paper One provides an in-depth review of the decline literature, a collection of work that goes back centuries. While rich with ideas, it is hallmarked by informal and ad-hoc theories with untestable assumptions and hypotheses, weak or absent empirical strategies, and social/political judgements disguised as unbiased historical analysis. To make progress in this field would require a novel approach to thinking about decline.Paper Two sets out a new multi-level systemic theory of decline, drawing from innovative work in Complexity Theory. I argue that great power decline is the result of states seeking greatness in the first place, a goal that requires sacrifices in other areas of resilience and stability. States' attempts to manage risk and reward to maximize power creates vulnerabilities and those vulnerabilities can lead to declines. The theory is formally tested through a computational simulation model that shows how the proposed mechanisms can lead to decline.Paper Three applies the theory to the collapse of the Soviet Union, one of the most important political declines in modern history. Through in-depth case research, the case demonstrates the theoretical mechanisms and shows that the decline was the result of deliberate choices made by the state in the pursuit of power. The USSR accepted instability to break out of stagnation, making a rational risk calculation. But payoffs are never guaranteed: instead of increasing performance and competitiveness with the United State, the state collapsed, in large part through the very mechanisms intended to revitalize the nation.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

Political science.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

History.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

Sociology.

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Complexity

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Performance-robustness trade-off

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Highly optimized tolerance

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Agent-based modeling

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Decline

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

International relations theory

Added Entry-Corporate Name  

The Ohio State University Political Science

Host Item Entry  

Dissertations Abstracts International. 86-04A.

Electronic Location and Access  

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Control Number  

joongbu:655770