자료유형  

 학위논문

Control Number  

0016934416

International Standard Book Number  

9798380321464

Dewey Decimal Classification Number  

025.11

Main Entry-Personal Name  

Wang, Zhengli.

Publication, Distribution, etc. (Imprint  

[S.l.] : Stanford University., 2021

Publication, Distribution, etc. (Imprint  

Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2021

Physical Description  

1 online resource(150 p.)

General Note  

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-03, Section: B.

General Note  

Advisor: Wein, Lawrence;Xu, Kuang;Zenios, Stefanos.

Dissertation Note  

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Stanford University, 2021.

Restrictions on Access Note  

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

Summary, Etc.  

요약In this thesis we present applications of stochastic modeling in entrepreneurship and healthcare. In Chapter 1 we model the creation of a new venture with a novel drift-variance diffusion control framework in which the state of the venture is captured by a diffusion process. The entrepreneur creating the venture chooses costly controls, which determine both the drift and the variance of the process. When the process reaches an upper boundary, the venture succeeds and the entrepreneur receives a reward. When the process reaches a lower boundary, the venture fails. The entrepreneur can choose between two different controls and wishes to determine the policy that maximizes the expected total reward minus total cost. We consider two variations of the model: one in which both boundaries are fixed, and one in which only the upper boundary is fixed but the lower is free. We derive closed-form expressions under which the optimal policy will be dynamic versus static and we prove that when the policy is dynamic it switches between the two controls at most once. The results reveal a subtle trade-off between the cost of the two controls, their drift and their variances, in which controls that are more expensive may be utilized more than controls that are less expensive. We also demonstrate that in the fixed boundary case the entrepreneur may wastefully use a more expensive control near the lower boundary to avoid hitting that boundary. This implies that efficient utilization of the two controls cannot happen when the entrepreneur does not have the freedom to choose when to abandon the venture.In Chapter 2 we model entrepreneurs' behavior when they engage in a simultaneous process of search and hypothesis testing. Entrepreneurs search for a set of strategic and operational choices that will maximize their venture's profits and they test the hypothesis that these profits exceed a minimum threshold of viability. We formulate a problem of the entrepreneur opportunity search process, where in each time period, the entrepreneur can stop and conclude, or choose an experiment from a set of strategic and operational options, implement it and observe the resulting profit. Using tools from machine learning to model the search process and tools from sequential hypothesis testing to model the testing procedure, we analytically characterize the optimal testing strategy for the resulting problem. We demonstrate that in certain scenarios the optimal testing strategy from ourframework and that predicted by the Lean Startup Theory are consistent, while in others they disagree.In Chapter 3 we present an application of stochastic modeling in healthcare. Conventional clinical trial designs adopt a fixed sample size and assume a standard type I error of 5% and type II error of 10% or 20%. While interim review of the results is possible to accelerate decision making, these designs are rigid because they do not allow changes in the design over time in response to the results accumulated, or adaptation of the type I and type II errors to reflect the potential benefits and risks of the treatment under study.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

Funding.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

Medical research.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

Brownian movements.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

Medicine.

Added Entry-Corporate Name  

Stanford University.

Host Item Entry  

Dissertations Abstracts International. 85-03B.

Host Item Entry  

Dissertation Abstract International

Electronic Location and Access  

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Control Number  

joongbu:643144