Material Type  

 학위논문

 

0016935587

Date and Time of Latest Transaction  

20240214101952

ISBN  

9798380371681

DDC  

320

Author  

Li, Miao.

Title/Author  

From Informational Beliefs to Complex Political Attitudes: A Bayesian Analysis of American Public Opinion on the Affordable Care Act - [electronic resource]

Publish Info  

[S.l.] : University of Michigan., 2023

Publish Info  

Ann Arbor : ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2023

Material Info  

1 online resource(174 p.)

General Note  

Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 85-03, Section: B.

General Note  

Advisor: Pasek, Josh.

학위논문주기  

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Michigan, 2023.

Restrictions on Access Note  

This item must not be sold to any third party vendors.

Restrictions on Access Note  

This item must not be added to any third party search indexes.

Abstracts/Etc  

요약It has long been assumed that the formation of individuals' attitudes toward a complex attitude object should reflect an integration process whereby individuals evaluate different constituent parts of the attitude object based on the information they have about these components and synthesize these evaluations to render a summary judgment. To what extent this expectation is true, however, remains a question to be answered. Leveraging a nationally representative survey on American public attitudes toward the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, this project investigated how a multitude of informational beliefs about what the law is comprised of, the level of certainty with which individuals hold these beliefs, and evaluations of corresponding provisions of the law, collectively shaped Americans' overall attitude toward this important and highly contentious piece of legislation. Using innovative Bayesian modeling techniques with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, this project successfully established a model where beliefs and evaluations associated with different attributes of an attitude object were presumed to have structurally similar relations with the overall attitude, and the variations in the effects of distinct beliefs and evaluations were determined by varying importance levels of different attributes of the attitude object.Furthermore, through a series of counterfactual simulations leveraging Bayesian linear regression and logistic regression models, this project identified the pivotal roles of belief accuracy and belief certainty in the process of political attitude formation. Possessing correct beliefs about what the law would and would not do improved the law's overall favorability. Holding correct beliefs with full certainty could even transform a slightly negative overall attitude toward the law to a slightly positive one. However, the counterfactual simulations also revealed that the increase in belief certainty resulted in a tremendous increase in attitude extremity. The size of the "neutral" group diminished while the group of those who were expected to express strong preferences (either favor or oppose) expanded enormously. The improvement in individuals' state of information (i.e., belief accuracy and belief certainty) led to both more favorable and more polarized overall attitudes toward the law. On this highly contentious public policy where there is persistent partisan divide, only a small portion of the partisan attitudinal gap could be accounted for by the state of information about and evaluations of distinct components of the law, while a large portion of the partisan discrepancy might reflect some more profound and inherent partisan considerations.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

Political science.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

Communication.

Subject Added Entry-Topical Term  

Social psychology.

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Political attitudes

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Information processing

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Misperceptions

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Counterfactual simulations

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Bayesian analysis

Index Term-Uncontrolled  

Affordable Care Act

Added Entry-Corporate Name  

University of Michigan Communication

Host Item Entry  

Dissertations Abstracts International. 85-03B.

Host Item Entry  

Dissertation Abstract International

Electronic Location and Access  

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소장사항  

202402 2024

Control Number  

joongbu:641492